The “1.5°C limit,” a term we often hear in discussions about global climate change, is no longer a scenario set in the distant future; it is a concrete reality, as the data shows us.
At Smart City & Partners, we analyzed global data that reflects the planet’s pulse and its local impacts. The findings we prepared based on NASA’s GDDP-CMIP6 datasets and Copernicus projections reveal a critical picture that is of great interest not only to climate scientists but also to urban planners, energy companies, and the insurance industry.
Here is the two-part risk scenario the data paints for us: Global Alarm and Local Reality.
Chapter 1: The Global Alarm Is Ringing (Watch Out for March 2029)
Projections based on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate that we have entered a critical turning point in climate history. (Note: 29)
Source: Copernicus Climate Data Store
As of November 2025, global warming had reached an estimated 1.41°C above pre-industrial levels. The trend line in the graph indicates that, if the current 30-year warming trend continues, the 1.5°C threshold—the critical limit set by the Paris Agreement—could be exceeded around March 2029.
This isn’t just about “warmer weather”; it means shifting atmospheric balances, disrupted jet streams, and extreme weather events becoming the “new normal.” So, what does this global trend mean for Turkey in the Mediterranean basin?
Chapter 2: A Critical Scenario for Turkey: +2.75°C in the Summer
While the global average temperature is rising by 1.5°C, certain regions are referred to as “climate change hotspots” and are warming much more rapidly. Unfortunately, Turkey is right in the middle of this belt.
The projections for Turkey, created by the SCP Data Analytics team by processing NASA’s GDDP-CMIP6 raw data, lay bare the situation in all its stark reality.
Our analysis shows what lies ahead for us in the 2050–2070 period, compared to the 2015–2024 period, which we have taken as our reference period (and which has already been unusually warm):
- Summer Is Sounding the Alarm: Under the high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), average temperatures during the summer months are expected to rise by an additional +2.75°C. Combined with the urban heat island effect, this will result in unbearable temperatures in major cities.
- The Gap Between Seasons Is Widening: The difference between the temperature increase during the winter months (+1.81°C) and that during the summer months signals that the water cycle and the agricultural calendar are set to change completely.
What Do These Data Mean for the Business World and Cities?
At Smart City & Partners, our vision is not just to identify the problem, but to make risks manageable by seeing what is invisible. A temperature increase of +2.75°C poses the following risks to your infrastructure:
Energy Infrastructure and Security
Heat waves cause expansion (sagging) in power transmission lines and lead to efficiency losses. At the same time, increased use of air conditioning places a massive load on the grid.
- Our Solution: Using our EyeOnBlue technology, we monitor power transmission lines and the surrounding vegetation using satellite and UAV data to minimize the risk of outages and fires.
Water Stress and Management
Excessive evaporation during the summer months will cause reservoir levels to drop below critical levels. Water is no longer just a resource—it is a strategic asset.
- Our Solution: We use satellite-based remote sensing to model water reserves, water quality, and watershed-level drought risks in advance.
Disaster Management and Fires
Drying vegetation and rising temperatures create the perfect storm for wildfires.
- Our Solution: Our AI-powered algorithms analyze the moisture content and fire risk of vegetation, providing proactive data to response teams.
Conclusion: Data-Driven Adaptation
Whether the 1.5°C threshold is exceeded in 2029 or Turkey’s summers become scorching by 2050 could be either a “manageable process” or a “crisis,” depending on the measures we take today.
At Smart City & Partners, we use our remote sensing and artificial intelligence solutions to anticipate future risks today and make your business and city resilient to climate change.
We may not be able to stop change, but we can be prepared for it.
